**Pakistan at a Crossroads: Economy, War, and Eid**

As Pakistan celebrates Eid al-Adha today — Wednesday, May 27 — the festivities are unfolding against a backdrop of both cautious economic optimism and serious geopolitical turbulence.

The Pakistani government declared May 26, 27, and 28 as public holidays for Eid ul-Adha, with the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee confirming the moon sighting on May 17.

 Across the country, families are gathering for prayers, qurbani, and celebrations. But the mood this year carries an undercurrent of anxiety.

**A Recovery Under Threat**

Pakistan's economy had been turning a corner. Driven by the IMF reform programme and steady economic recovery, Pakistan's economy was projected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, with the current account posting a surplus for FY25, inflation remaining under control, and external reserves strengthening. 

That momentum, however, has been severely tested by the war in the Middle East.

**The Shadow of War**

The 2026 Iran war, initiated on February 28 by coordinated US-Israeli strikes, had immediate impacts on global travel and trade, with flights in and out of the Middle East coming to a near-complete stop.

 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to what the International Energy Agency characterized as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," with Brent crude surging past $120 per barrel. 

For Pakistan, the fallout has been immediate and painful. Pakistan imports about 80% of its energy from the Gulf, and authorities scrambled to roll out measures to conserve fuel. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced sweeping emergency austerity and fuel conservation measures, warning that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz had placed Pakistan's economy under direct threat — triggering the largest fuel price increase in the country's history, with petrol jumping 20% in a single week.

Analysts warned that every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly $1.5–$2 billion to Pakistan's current account deficit and pushes inflation up by 0.5–0.6 percentage points — threatening to undo the hard-won gains of FY25.

**Eid Amid Uncertainty**

Despite the hardships, Pakistanis are embracing the spirit of Eid al-Adha. On this day, those who can afford it perform Qurbani — the ritual sacrifice of an animal — with the meat divided into three parts: one for the family, one for relatives, and one for those in need. That tradition of sharing feels especially meaningful this year, as rising costs squeeze household budgets.

Pakistan stands at a defining intersection: a nation trying to sustain an economic comeback while navigating the shock waves of a war it did not start — and celebrating one of its most sacred holidays at the very same moment.

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*Eid Mubarak to all those celebrating.*